¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040?

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 51.2% a fecha de 30 de octubre de 2026.

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 51.2%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 horas

Desactualizado

30 dic 22, 19:25 UTC1 ene 40, 19:00 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN

Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia breaks apart, the market will follow the part which retains:
Moscow/the capital
Control of the military
The cultural core
If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear which part represents Russia, the market may be voided.