Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 23 jul 2026, 16:00 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Pronóstico comunitario actualMay 31 0%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado anteayer
Desactualizado16 may 26, 16:1431 dic 26, 23:59
Tendencias
0%
0%
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
October 3114%
Comparar plataformas· December 31
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMejor en general88% de coincidencia · verificado | Alta | 36% | — | 37,4 mil € | 208,8 mil € | hace 18 minutos | Abrir → |
| Polymarket88% de coincidencia · auto | Media | 25% | — | 4,7 mil € | 124,5 mil € | hace 18 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 21% | — | — | — | anteayer |
También disponible en Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
0.5%5m
25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 resultados más
73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total797,3 mil €
Volumen 24h4,7 mil €
POLYMARKETTambién disponible en Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
3.5%5m
-0.5%36%
-3.5%19%
-1.5%8%
+2 resultados más
89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total5 M €
Volumen 24h37,4 mil €
POLYMARKETReglas
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Operaciones grandes
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinkahace 3 d
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinkahace 3 d$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3hace 21 d
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3hace 21 d$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedstahace 26 d
POLYMARKETNonedstahace 26 dTendencia de volumen
$6018 jul4d de datos23 jul
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Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.