Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualDecember 31 10.7%-0.3ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-2.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 26 minutos
16 may 26, 16:14 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 363 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volumen total
- 9,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 245,5 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 62,8 M €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date??
- Manifold Markets cotiza December 31 al 11% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date??
- Está previsto que Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- ¿Dónde más está listado Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Polymarket.