Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.8%
Pronosticadores
85
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado14 dic 25, 17:18 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- A ceasefire will resolve YES if a formal agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities is reached and takes effect at any point during 2026.
- The ceasefire must involve a cessation of military operations along the entire front line, not partial or temporary truces.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming the ceasefire has commenced.
- If no such agreement is reached by December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
- Renewed negotiations began in 2025 after Donald Trump became president, with Trump's administration broadly agreeing with Russian proposals for ending the war.
