Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 69.8%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado1 oct 25, 18:46 UTC23 mar 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market resolves to YES if, before March 24, 2030, there is a military coup attempt or self-coup attempt in the United States as defined by academic coup databases.
- Resolution criteria:
- A military coup attempt is defined as an illegal, overt attempt by military officers to unseat the incumbent government
- A self-coup (autogolpe) is defined as an attempt by an elected leader to stay in power through illegal means, with military support
- The event must be classified as a coup attempt by at least two of the following: Cline Center Coup D'état Project, Powell & Thyne Coup Dataset, or other recognized academic coup databases
- Failed attempts count as long as they meet the definition criteria
