Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 2:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.7%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado6 dic 25, 20:12 UTC1 ene 28, 20:08 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
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Manifold MarketsVaccination program for Classical Swine Fever (Hog Cholera) in a Nordic Country before Christmas Eve 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessReglas
The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
- This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab.
- Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes.
- If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No. Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple authorities scenario clarification:
- If MAPA/EUVET scientists conclude it's likely a lab leak → resolves YES
