Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualUkraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia 60.4%Líder entre 6 opciones
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683
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado2 jul 23, 9:32 UTC31 dic 29, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.
- There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border.
- For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014.
- Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).
- The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again.
- The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.