By the end of 2050, what will my best guess be for the number of people that have died from climate change since 2000?
72.3 pts (24h)GeopolíticaOne-OffClima
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
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Other 27.7%-72.3ptPronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-72.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado3 mar 23, 0:53 UTC2 ene 51, 0:53 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
I will only resolve YES answers created by order of magnitude (edit: OR <10K, which includes negative numbers)
- EG: 10K-100K, 100K-1M, 1M-10M, 10M-100M, etc. Please do not add answers that deviate from this format.
- I will not count effects that route through social effects of climate change.
- EG I will not count "climate-change related mass immigration increases social instability which is partially responsible for a war in which people die".
- I will count effects like "climate change caused high temperatures in a region which caused people to be more likely to die from sickness."
