KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
No 88%
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
6,7 €
Liquidez
1,6 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
8.0% / 11.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
12 may 26, 0:00 UTC8 ene 27, 13:29 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:FRED
- The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME.
- Revisions to previously published values will not be considered.
- The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession.
- A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Kalshi cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? se resuelva el 8 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.