Probabilidad implícita actual
No 92%
No 92%Calidad del mercado
33 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
1,2 mil €
Baja liquidezTraders
10
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 minutos
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
This market predicts whether the United States will enter a technical recession during calendar‑year 2026—that is, at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- A “Yes” resolution requires any back‑to‑back pair of quarters with negative growth in which both quarters fall within 2026.
- Negative growth means a value strictly below 0.0 percent in Table 1.1.1 of the corresponding BEA advance release, so that zero or positive growth in any quarter breaks a potential sequence.
- The primary settlement source is the BEA’s quarterly advance GDP result.
- If the release is temporarily inaccessible, the fallback is the identical advance figure carried in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)’s Real GDP series.
- If no qualifying two‑quarter sequence is present in any advance estimate covering Q1 2026 through Q4 2026, the market resolves “No.” Later BEA revisions, NBER recession declarations, or monthly indicators do not affect resolution.
