Will Brazil's federal government meet its primary fiscal surplus target in 2026?
EconomíaOne-OffAmérica Latina2m
FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosProbabilidad implícita actual
No 56%
No 56%Calidad del mercado
32 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
893,7 €
Baja liquidezTraders
8
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
By Oct 31, 2026, will openai.com say its agents accessed a U.S. federal government system without authorization?
Manifold MarketsU.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the federal government start mining Bitcoin?
KalshiWhen in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
Manifold MarketsWill there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?
Manifold MarketsMexico unemployment rate in October
KalshiReglas
This market refers exclusively to the primary result — that is, government revenues minus expenditures before the payment of interest on public debt.
- It does not refer to the nominal fiscal result, which includes interest payments.
- The official target defined in Brazil’s 2026 Annual Budget Law (LOA 2026) is a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP (approximately R$34.5 billion), with a tolerance band of ±0.25 percentage points of GDP.
- Therefore, for this market, the target will be considered met if the primary result is ≥ 0.00% of GDP (i.e., if it is above the lower bound of the tolerance band).
- If Brazil’s central government achieves a positive primary surplus (greater than 0.00% of GDP) for the 2026 calendar year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Resolution will be based on the official consolidated primary result of the Central Government, as initially published by the National Treasury in its annual fiscal report.
