PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability20+ 100%+0.7ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
17 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-19.4 pts
Market data
Updated 19 days ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 6:00 PMJun 30, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
40+88%
60+0%
80+0%
20+99%
100%
100%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 20+
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall75% match · verified | Low | 99% | — | $26.6K | $205.4K | 19 days ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 100% | — | $4.3K | $0 | 19 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (June 2026)
1.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
At least 20 (99%)
99%
99%
99%
+3 more outcomes
39 • Low qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$529.6K
24h Vol$26.6K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$4.3kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
$221.5KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 7%KALSHI
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$45.9KAbove 50: 16%KALSHI
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KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
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Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31 at 1.85% YesBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.