Which countries will Trump accuse of election interference by July 16?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionRussia / UkraineChina2d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Iran 56%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.3K
Liquidity
$114K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
11.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:35 AMJul 16, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Iran56%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges that interference by the listed country has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns.
- Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
- The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity.
- The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").