Trump alleges foreign election interference by July 16?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionRussia / UkraineChina2d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 75%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$110
Liquidity
$706.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
73.0% / 76.0%
Spread
4.1%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:34 AMJul 16, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes75%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges interference by a foreign actor has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns.
- Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
- The alleged interference must be attributed to a specific foreign government, foreign state-affiliated entity, foreign organization, or foreign nationals acting in that capacity.
- The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").