PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Over 2.5 64.1%Leader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$6.4K
Medium liquidityComments
0
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 7:35 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Rules
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
- See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
- This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "the named outcome" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above.
- Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.
- The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
- If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño??
- Polymarket prices Over 2.5 at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? resolve?
- What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027.
- How is What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).