PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Over 2.5 · —
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Stored reference
Over 2.5 66.7%Leader of 5 outcomes
Over 2.5 66.7%Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$9.5K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$9.8K
Bid / Ask
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Over 2.5Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
+9.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 7:35 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Over 2.5
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
KalshiWill this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
PolymarketWill El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
- See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
- This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "the named outcome" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above.
- Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.
- The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
- If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.