KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 2.0°C 86%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.3K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 9:29 PM UTCApr 5, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWill global peak oil production occur before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill global peak oil production occur before 2026?
Manifold MarketsGlobal carbon emissions peak when ?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
- The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary).
- For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value.
- The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period.
- However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 0.5 and 0.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter??
- Kalshi prices At least 2.0°C at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter? resolve?
- What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter? is scheduled to resolve on April 5, 2027.
- How is What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.