KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 2.5°C · —
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Stored price
At least 2.5°C 82.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
At least 2.5°C 82.5%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$5.7K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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At least 2.5°CSpread
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Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 11:00 PM UTCApr 5, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 2.5°C
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
PolymarketWill this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketRules
If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
- The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 2.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2.0°C to 2.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.0°C to 1.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.0 and 1.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.5°C to 1.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.5 and 1.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 0.5°C to 0.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 0.5 and 0.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 0.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is below 0.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.