Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingJul 15, 26, 5:22 AM UTCJun 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketWill El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)
Manifold MarketsRules
The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria.
- This market will resolve to YES if the RONI value from the source below reaches +2.7°C or higher.
- If the peak RONI value from the source below never reaches or exceeds the above value (+2.7°C), this market will resolve to NO. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the following condition is met for any three-month running mean season during the El Niño event peaking in late 2026 or early 2027:
- The official Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaches +2.70°C or higher (strictly exceeding the historical record of +2.69°C set during the 1982-1983 winter).