PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 92%+0.2pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
91.6% / 93.3%
Spread
1.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:36 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWill Southern California experience snow this winter?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhen will Beaver Creek Resort open for the 26/27 winter season?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season.
- An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
- This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season.
- If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-5.0pt61%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $108K
- 24h Vol
- $103.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above61.7%
- 88° to 89°18.7%
- 86° to 87°13.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $98K
- 24h Vol
- $97.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°57%
- 82° to 83°29%
- 79° or below9.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30K
- 24h Vol
- $29.9K
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Total Vol
- $68.2K
- 24h Vol
- $24.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° to 91°55.6%
- 88° to 89°21.3%
- 92° to 93°14.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25K
- 24h Vol
- $24K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Singapore on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? resolve?
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027.
- How is Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.