PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored reference
Yes 97%
Yes 97%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$895.9
Low liquidityOpen interest
$2.4K
Bid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:36 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWill this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
PolymarketWill there be two or more super intelligences with different goals/values?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a super majority(60 people) in the senate before the filibuster is abolished.
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season.
- An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
- This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season.
- If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.