Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)?

Manifold Markets prices +2.60 or higher (new record) at 41% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59) resolve?

Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59) is scheduled to resolve on November 12, 2026.

How is Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59) settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Question: What value will NOAA publish for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for August–September–October 2026 (ASO 2026)?

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KALSHI

Where will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?

• Seattle+28.0pt99.5%
• Denver+41.0pt99.5%
• West Palm Beach+16.0pt99.5%

+32 more outcomes

Total Vol

$190.2K

24h Vol

$165.9K

KALSHI

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 26, 2026?

• 83° to 84°48.5%
• 81° to 82°40.5%
• 85° to 86°10.5%

KALSHI

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 26, 2026?

• 77° to 78°65.5%
• 79° or above23%
• 75° to 76°10.5%

KALSHI

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 26, 2026?

• 68° to 69°57.5%
• 70° to 71°41.5%
• 72° to 73°2.5%

KALSHI

Where will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?

• Miami94.5%
• Minneapolis94%
• West Palm Beach93%

KALSHI

Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Oct 26, 2026?

• 48° to 49°73%
• 50° to 51°22.5%
• 47° or below0.5%

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