PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:23 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Yes · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
Yes 72%
Yes 72%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$209
Liquidity
$241.6
Low liquidityOpen interest
$267.7
Bid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 14, 26, 3:23 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · Yes
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain this weekend (Oct 24 - Oct 25)?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates.
- The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record.
- A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
- The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution.