PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityRepublican Party 92%+2.5%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$58.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
91.0% / 92.0%
Spread
1.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+2.0%
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 28, 26, 10:34 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Republican Party92%
Compare venues· Republican Party
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | 92% | — | $2.6K | $58.8K | 9 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi | 93% | — | $0 | $1.6K | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
TX-04 House winner?
1y
11%
93%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.1K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.6kJul 63d of dataJul 8
Related Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.3MGavin Newsom: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
$187.2KJames Fishback: 4%KALSHI
KALSHI
Trump out as President by July 31?
$88.3KYes: 0%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Maine Senate Election Winner
$43.2KDemocrat: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
$30.2KAt least 1%: 66%KALSHI
KALSHI
California Governor winner?
$29.5KSteve Hilton: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Ripple, Coinbase among top donors in crypto’s $189 million election spending: reportThe Block
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%Blockchain.News
Ripple-backed PACs fuel record $189M crypto election spendingCrypto News
Eizenkot kicks off election bid as Polymarket puts him at 40% to lead IsraelBlockchain.News.jpg)
Supreme Court mail-ballot ruling lifts Lula to 55.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.