Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 2%Leader of 4 outcomes
December 31 2%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$18.1K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$9.8K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
20
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Apr 9, 26, 1:55 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
April 30Lost
July 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · December 31
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven?
Manifold MarketsIf the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?
KalshiWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
- The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets.
- However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.