Current community forecast
Adam Back 34.7%Leader of 10 outcomes
Adam Back 34.7%Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleTrends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Manifold MarketsSatoshi's identity be proven by which date?
PolymarketWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Satoshi is definitively proven to be one of the people listed, that person will resolve yes.
- Otherwise, that person will resolve no.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be the named outcome, that option will resolve yes, and all the others - even if those others were part of the group - will resolve no.
- If Satoshi got occasional help, or occasionally gave another person account access, that will not be sufficient for other to resolve to yes.
- However, constant writing code together and constant and continuous sharing of account credentials will count.
