PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (100%)
Resolved: May 9, 2026, 7:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
32%
SurpriseCurrent implied probabilityYes 100%+0.7pt
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$30.8M
Liquidity
$2.7M
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+90.5 pts
Market data
Updated 79 days ago
StaleJan 13, 26, 7:24 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $30.8M | $2.7M | 79 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets84% match · auto | — | 3% | — | — | — | 28 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Closed
Resolved
No (97.5%)
97.5%
2.5%
Community forecast32 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.