Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
GeopoliticsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No (97.5%)
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, 9:43 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- No
- Recorded
- Jul 25, 2026, 9:33 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current community forecastNo 97.5%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 28 days ago
StaleApr 2, 26, 4:57 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes2.5%
No97.5%
2.5%
97.5%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Low | 0% | — | $30.8M | $2.7M | 79 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 98% | — | — | — | 28 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
65.5 ptsClosed
Resolved
Yes (100%)
+0.7pt100%
-0.7pt0%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$40.1M
24h Vol$30.8M
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.