PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No Bond chosen (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityNo Bond chosen 100%+0.2ptLeader of 31 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$12.8K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+7.2 pts
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleAug 4, 25, 10:51 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
No Bond chosen98%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson0%
James Norton0%
Person 130%
Paul Mescal0%
Person 140%
Person 150%
Person 170%
Jacob Elordi1%
Person 160%
Harris Dickinson4%
Person 180%
Tom Hardy0%
Person 190%
Pierce Brosnan0%
Person 200%
Tom Holland0%
Henry Cavill2%
A woman0%
Callum Turner1%
Jack Lowdon0%
Theo James2%
Placeholder 80%
Robert James-Collier1%
Josh O'Connor0%
Placeholder 70%
Placeholder 90%
Placeholder 100%
Placeholder 110%
Placeholder 120%
Other0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No Bond chosen
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall87% match · verified | Medium | 41% | — | $1.9K | $746.4K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | Low | 100% | — | $12.8K | $0 | 25 days ago | |
| Polymarket82% match · linked | Low | 19% | — | $806.5 | $9.7K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 38% | — | — | — | 27 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
3y
41%
21%
16%
+21 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$1.9K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Next James Bond? (Including actually likely answers)
2y
38.3%
27.4%
5.3%
+19 more outcomes
Community forecast29 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Next James Bond actor?
4.8 pts5mo
+3.7pt33%
31%
+1.2pt31%
+46 more outcomes
48 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$18.1K
24h Vol$806.5
POLYMARKETRules
This is a market on who will be the next actor to play James Bond in the upcoming film series.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.9k88.0%KALSHITom Holland — No6d ago
KALSHITom Holland — No6d ago$1.3k49.0%KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago
KALSHICallum Turner — Yes10d ago$4.3k96.0%KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No12d ago
KALSHIScott Rose-Marsh — No12d ago$4.4k96.0%KALSHIRichard Madden — No12d ago
KALSHIRichard Madden — No12d ago$2.9k96.0%KALSHICharlie Hunnam — No12d ago
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Rules
This is a market on who will be the next actor to play James Bond in the upcoming film series.