PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityJune 27 100%+88.7%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$17K
Liquidity
$218.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.1% / 4.6%
Spread
318.2%
Wide spread7d Change
-2.9%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 25, 26, 11:22 PMJul 9, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
July 65%
Large trades
$2.9k96.2%NoTulipoIIyesterday
$1.2k99.7%NoMrMelonHead2d ago
Related Markets
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
$1.4MJuly 31: 67%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$134.9KDecember 31: 48%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
$119.6KSwitzerland: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
$97.7KBefore September: 18%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
$5.3KYes: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIsraeli Parliament dissolved by…?
$680June 15 11.59pm ET: 2.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% NoBlockchain.News
Iran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcyBlockchain.News
Gulf officials weigh US-backed Lebanon–Israel framework as Polymarket Yes slipsBlockchain.News
Israeli strike raises tensions as Polymarket cuts Qatar talks odds to 43.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
- Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market.
- Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.
- Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.