PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 100+ (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability100+ 100%+0.3ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$64
Liquidity
$81.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleJun 21, 26, 6:10 PMJun 28, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
25-491%
50-740%
100+100%
75-990%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 100+
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $64 | $81.3K | 22 days ago | |
 KalshiMost active82% match · verified | Low | 99% | — | $26.5K | $1K | 25 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (6/22 - 6/28)
82.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
Above 225 (99%)
+82.0pt99%
+62.0pt99%
+97.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
47 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$217.1K
24h Vol$26.5K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period.
- If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$64Jul 24d of dataJul 5
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period.
- If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.