KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Above 225 (99%)
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, 3:31 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 225
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
21%
SurpriseCurrent implied probabilityAbove 225 99%+82.0ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$26.5K
Liquidity
$1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 5:00 PMJul 7, 26, 1:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Above 2506%
Above 20080%
Above 22599%
Above 17584%
Above 2599%
99%
99%
10%
99%
97%
98%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Above 225
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $64 | $81.3K | 22 days ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis pageMost active | Low | 99% | — | $26.5K | $1K | 25 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 22?
0.3 ptsClosed
Resolved
100+ (100%)
+0.3pt100%
-0.1pt0%
-0.4pt0%
+2 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$85.3K
24h Vol$64
POLYMARKETRules
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 70 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31 at 1.85% YesBlockchain.NewsRules
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 70 from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.