KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 70 13%-2.0%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 16.0%
Spread
23.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 3:00 PMAug 4, 26, 1:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 7013%
Volume trend
$2.5kJul 243d of dataJul 26
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If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.