PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No change (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityNo change 100%+0.2ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$38M
Liquidity
$17.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 88 days ago
StaleNov 13, 25, 12:40 AMApr 29, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
No change100%
50+ bps decrease0%
decrease0%
increase0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No change
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $38M | $17.2M | 88 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets87% match · auto | — | 99% | — | — | — | 88 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Fed decision in April?
Closed
Resolved
No change (99%)
99%
0.6%
0.3%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast26 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Fed Decision in July?
$4MNo change: 80%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
$930.3KFed maintains rate: 80%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$70.7KYes: 67%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$70K0 (0: 85%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?
$41.2KDissent: 28%KALSHI
KALSHI
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
$37.8KAbove 3.75%: 20%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin climbs above $65K as weak PPI rattles Fed hawksCrypto News
Polymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimonyBlockchain.NewsPolymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike fall to 52.5% as traders trim betsBlockchain.News
Polymarket sees 92.5% odds of July Fed hold as crypto jumps on easing inflationBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Fed hold slips to 56.5% after softer CPI chatterBlockchain.NewsRules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.