KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityVolatility 18%+3.0%Leader of 43 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$35.6K
Liquidity
$105.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 17.0%
Spread
6.3%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 10:30 PMJul 30, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Volatility18%
Compare venues· Balance Sheet
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 83% | 0pt | $35.6K | $105.2K | 12 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket88% match · auto | High | 85% | +2pt | $9.7K | $142.7K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
2.0%3d
+0.5%85%
82%
78%
+30 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$63.3K
24h Vol$9.7K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Event does not qualify at his Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Video of the Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A will be used.
- The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Please see full rules for more details.
- If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says AI / Artificial Intelligence at his Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$35.6kJul 819d of dataJul 26
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If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Event does not qualify at his Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Video of the Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A will be used.
- The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Please see full rules for more details.
- If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says AI / Artificial Intelligence at his Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.