KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 4.00% 1%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$31.4K
Liquidity
$2.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 6, 25, 2:30 PMJul 29, 26, 5:55 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 4.00%1%
Large trades
$2.0k75.0%KALSHIAbove 3.75% — No2d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.75% — No2d ago$8.8k72.0%KALSHIAbove 3.75% — No3d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.75% — No3d ago$1.2k72.0%KALSHIAbove 3.75% — No3d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.75% — No3d ago$1.4k28.0%KALSHIAbove 3.75% — Yes3d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.75% — Yes3d ago$1.2k99.0%KALSHIAbove 4.00% — No5d ago
KALSHIAbove 4.00% — No5d ago$2.2k99.0%KALSHIAbove 4.00% — No5d ago
KALSHIAbove 4.00% — No5d ago$1.3k10.0%KALSHIAbove 3.75% — Yes5d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.75% — Yes5d ago$1.0k10.0%KALSHIAbove 3.75% — Yes5d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.75% — Yes5d agoVolume trend
$31.4kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.