PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
No 92.1%
No 92.1%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$38.3
Liquidity
$278.1
Low liquidityOpen interest
$161.2
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
-11.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 3:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Oceangate face more than $1M fines, settlements and judgements as a result of the submersible incident?
Manifold MarketsWill a journalist in the U.S. face imprisonment or fines due to their professional activities before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Oracle lose the JavaScript trademark by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Assassination attempt on Elon Musks life between now and the mid terms of 2026.
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a fine or any other civil or criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia Corporation (Nvidia), or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, consent decree, deferred prosecution agreement, non-prosecution agreement, or plea agreement, concerning Nvidia's licensing agreement with Groq, Inc. and the related hiring of Groq personnel announced on December 24, 2025, including any amendment, restructuring, or replacement of that arrangement (the Groq agreement), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying penalty is a payment of any amount that Nvidia, or any parent, subsidiary, or successor of Nvidia, is ordered or agrees to pay to the United States government as a fine, civil penalty, criminal penalty, or disgorgement in connection with the Groq agreement, including any penalty for an alleged failure to file a premerger notification or observe a required waiting period for that agreement.
- The penalty must be announced by the DOJ, filed in court by the DOJ, or ordered by a court in a case brought by the DOJ; a penalty announced jointly by the DOJ and another federal agency qualifies.
- A penalty imposed or agreed to in a matter to which the DOJ is not a party will not qualify.
- A settlement, consent decree, deferred prosecution agreement, non-prosecution agreement, or plea agreement in which Nvidia agrees to pay a qualifying penalty counts as of the date the DOJ announces it or files it in court, regardless of whether a court has approved it by the resolution date.
