PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 2.6% (100%)
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 14, 2026, 2:37 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability2.6% 100%+99.9ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$23.3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-47.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleJun 10, 26, 3:44 PMJul 15, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
2.8%53%
2.9%54%
3.1%1%
≥3.3%0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 2.6%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall85% match · verified | Low | 53% | — | $1.5K | $41.4K | 13 days ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | Low | 100% | — | $23.3K | $0 | 12 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?
2.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
Exactly 2.6% (1%)
-1.0pt46.1%
-1.0pt29.6%
-2.0pt10.4%
+13 more outcomes
30 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$757.6K
24h Vol$1.5K
KALSHIRules
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$23.3kJul 214d of dataJul 15
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
$20.5KAbove 3.4%: 22%KALSHI
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US Core PCE (June 2026)
$6.2K0.0: 98%ROTHERA
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Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
$6KAbove 3.4%: 97%KALSHI
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How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?
$2.8KAbove 0.2%: 2%KALSHI
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This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.