KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Exactly 2.6% (1%)
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, 1:13 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 14, 2026, 12:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Exactly 2.6%
- Recorded
- Jul 16, 2026, 6:55 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityExactly 2.8% 46.1%-1.0ptLeader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$41.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 29.0%
Spread
24.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 days ago
StaleDec 15, 25, 3:00 PMJul 14, 26, 12:29 PM
Probability Timeline
Exactly 2.9%33%
Exactly 2.7%12%
Exactly 2.8%54%
10.4%
46.1%
0.9%
29.6%
0.9%
0.9%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Exactly 2.8%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 53% | — | $1.5K | $41.4K | 13 days ago | |
 PolymarketMost active85% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $23.3K | $0 | 12 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Core CPI YoY - June 2026
53.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
2.6% (100%)
+99.9pt100%
0%
0%
+7 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$45K
24h Vol$23.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.3% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.4% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.6% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.7% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.5kJul 213d of dataJul 14
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.3% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.4% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.6% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.7% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.