PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No Change (100%)
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probabilityNo Change 100%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.4K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleApr 30, 26, 12:03 AMJul 15, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
50+ bps increase0%
No Change100%
25 bps decrease0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No Change
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $4.4K | $0 | 12 days ago | |
 Kalshi85% match · auto | Low | 99% | — | $523 | $4.8K | 12 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Bank of Canada decision in Jul 2026?
Closed
Resolved
Maintains rate (99%)
95.2%
1.9%
1%
+2 more outcomes
27 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity
Total Vol$5.9K
24h Vol$523
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
- The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$4.4kJul 215d of dataJul 16
Related Markets
Fed decision in July?
$7.6KFed maintains rate: 71.5%
GEMINI
GEMINI
Bank of Canada Decision in September?
$5.6KNo Change: 93%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Bank of Japan Decision in July?
$15.2KNo change: 99%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETBank of Canada Decision in October?
$6.2KNo Change: 97%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2026?
$250Yes: 6.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026
$171.2Above 0.5%: 99%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin climbs above $65K as weak PPI rattles Fed hawksCrypto News
Polymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimonyBlockchain.NewsPolymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike fall to 52.5% as traders trim betsBlockchain.News
Polymarket sees 92.5% odds of July Fed hold as crypto jumps on easing inflationBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Fed hold slips to 56.5% after softer CPI chatterBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
- The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).