PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability25 bps decrease 87.9%+7.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.8K
Liquidity
$47.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
86.0% / 87.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Apr 29, 26, 11:57 PMAug 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
25 bps decrease87%
Compare venues· 25 bps decrease
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 87% | — | $3.8K | $47.5K | 14 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi85% match · auto | Medium | 83% | — | $1.1K | $17.8K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in August
4.0 pts8d
+4.0pt83%
-5.0pt12%
1%
+4 more outcomes
71 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$28.4K
24h Vol$1.1K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$3.8kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).