PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 20-40 (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability20-40 100%+2.1%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.4K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+16.4%
Market data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 12:27 AMJun 30, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
10-200%
20-40100%
40-601%
60+0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]
Closed
Resolved
40+ (100%)
100%
0%
0%
Community forecast17 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
3.7%5d
+18.1%100%
+8.3%17%
+3.7%8%
+4 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$45.5K
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo12052d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo12052d ago$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly7d ago
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly7d ago$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit12d ago
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit12d ago$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo120518d ago
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo120518d ago$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday7719d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday7719d ago$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a49519d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a49519d ago$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly21d ago
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly21d ago$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos25d ago
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos25d agoVolume trend
$8.4kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.