Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
3.5% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffMiddle East5d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability40+ 100%+18.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$35.1K
Liquidity
$233.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
12.1% / 13.0%
Spread
7.4%
Moderate spread7d Change
-0.8%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 9:01 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
100%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
30+13%
Compare venues· 40+
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]
Closed
Resolved
40+ (100%)
100%
0%
0%
Community forecast17 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
2.1%Closed
Resolved
20-40 (100%)
+2.1%100%
0%
-0.3%0%
+2 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$718.8K
24h Vol$8.4K
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo12052d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo12052d ago$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly7d ago
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly7d ago$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit12d ago
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit12d ago$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo120518d ago
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo120518d ago$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday7719d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday7719d ago$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a49519d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a49519d ago$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly21d ago
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly21d ago$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos25d ago
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos25d agoVolume trend
$35.1kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.