Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 40+ (100%)
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, 12:20 AM
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecast40+ 100%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 days ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 5:29 AMJul 10, 26, 12:20 AM
Probability Timeline
40+100%
60+0%
80+0%
100%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 40+
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
3.5%5d
+18.1%100%
+3.5%13%
+2.9%8%
+4 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$35.1K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
2.1%Closed
Resolved
20-40 (100%)
+2.1%100%
0%
-0.3%0%
+2 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$718.8K
24h Vol$8.4K
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket:
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo12052d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo12052d ago$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly7d ago
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly7d ago$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit12d ago
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit12d ago$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo120518d ago
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo120518d ago$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday7719d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday7719d ago$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a49519d ago
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a49519d ago$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly21d ago
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly21d ago$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos25d ago
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This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket:
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.