Current implied probability
Yes 27%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$32.8
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 27.0%
Spread
3.9%
Moderate spread7d Change
+2.0%
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 31, 25, 5:10 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes27%
Volume trend
$33Jul 521d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
- The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S.