Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Mar 21, 26, 12:10 AM UTCJun 30, 30, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if Zijin Mining Group (HK:2899) produced more than 2,000 tonnes of tungsten (measured as WO3 equivalent) in the 2029 calendar year, as reported in the company's annual results.
- What is being measured: Total tungsten output from all Zijin assets worldwide for the full calendar year 2029.
- As of March 2026, Zijin has zero tungsten production.
- A YES outcome requires Zijin to have announced, financed, and ramped a new tungsten asset within the next four years.
- Why this matters: Zijin's investment arm Gold Mountains ($6bn AUM) publicly stated in March 2026 it is looking to acquire tungsten assets via streaming or equity deals, driven by tungsten prices more than doubling after China imposed export curbs.
- This market tracks whether that intent translates into material production.
