Will Sangdong mine output exceed 20% of non-Chinese tungsten supply on April 1, 2027?
CommoditiesOne-OffChina5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.2%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 26, 6:11 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 6:10 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if Sangdong mine's reported tungsten mine production accounts for more than 20% of the total global tungsten mine supply excluding China on April 1, 2027.
- Resolution will rely on authoritative production data from Almonty Industries' official reports and USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries or equivalent industry publications available closest to the settlement date.
- Given Sangdong's commercial production start in early 2026 and its target to supply a substantial share of non-Chinese tungsten, this threshold reflects a critical milestone for supply chain diversification away from China.
- Only primary mine production counts; recycled tungsten or refined APT volumes do not count towards this metric.
- The capacity of Sangdong to significantly alter the non-Chinese tungsten supply landscape is critical for market balance.
- Source: Article
