What are the current odds for Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life??

Manifold Markets prices No at 74.7% as of October 31, 2026.

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

ChinaOne-Off14y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 74.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

May 20, 23, 9:07 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves NO if, at any point during his life, Xi is no longer considered the most powerful leader in China.

Resolves YES if he dies at the top.
I will extend this market indefinitely as necessary.
This may be biased toward NO, since he's only 69 and YES holders might have to wait decades to get their payout.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.