Current community forecast
No 83.2%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 23, 6:20 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tether collapse before 2030?
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KalshiWill USDT market cap hit $200B by which date?
PolymarketWill USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by which date?
PolymarketWill Tether collapse before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Tether collapse before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
YES = USDT < $0.98 for 7 days.
- Will use price data from one of the top exchanges at the time (e.g. today in 2023 I would use Coinbase).
- Background: USDT is a stablecoin managed by Tether (company).
- There have been rumors for a long time that Tether may not have enough assets to fully back the USDT stablecoins distributed in the crypto-economy (~$80B).
- If it were found that tether insolvent, or something else happened to shake confidence in USDT's redeemability to USD, then the price could depeg.
- I picked 1 week so it would indicate a serious issue, i.e. probably irredeemable reputational damage and likely leading to users abandoning the stablecoin.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030 resolve?
- Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: YES = USDT < $0.98 for 7 days.