Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 94.6%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 5, 23, 1:06 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2027?
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Part of a series of markets on the survival of Tumblr.
- Resolves based on my judgement if there's any ambiguity, but I do not expect there to be.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Part of a series of markets on the survival of Tumblr.