Will Thinking Machines Lab close or announce a funding round at a $40B+ valuation by November 15, 2026?
TechOne-OffBusiness & Corporate24dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.9%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 26, 3:08 PM UTCNov 16, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI company) completes or formally announces a new primary equity funding round that values the company at $40 billion or more (pre- or post-money, whichever is reported).
- What counts: an official Thinking Machines Lab announcement (its website, its official X account, or Mira Murati or another executive on the record), OR reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times or The Information that the round has been signed, closed, or agreed (term sheets signed, money committed) at a valuation of at least $40B.
- What does NOT count: reports that the company is "in talks", "seeking", "weighing" or "in discussions"; employee secondary/tender sales; debt; compute or chip supply deals.
- A standalone Nvidia investment counts only if it is reported as part of (or as) a priced equity round at $40B+.
- Context: in early September 2026, The Information and others reported Thinking Machines was in talks to raise money at a pre-money valuation of at least $40B, with Accel in talks to lead and Nvidia discussing about $2.5B.
- That was down from a reported $50B+ target in late 2025.
