Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 25, 5:17 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the worldwide Google Trends metric for the term "Arafel" reaches a higher level than its previous maximum (the spike circa Mar 2011) before January 1st 2035.
Open markets
Tech
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+3 more outcomes
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- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
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+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a trend spike for the term "Arafel" before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a trend spike for the term "Arafel" before 2035? resolve?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Arafel" before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2034.
- How is Will there be a trend spike for the term "Arafel" before 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the worldwide Google Trends metric for the term "Arafel" reaches a higher level than its previous maximum (the spike circa Mar 2011) before January 1st 2035.