What are the current odds for Will the USD stop being the world's reserve currency by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 67.9% as of October 31, 2026.

Will the USD stop being the world's reserve currency by 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 67.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 20 minutes ago

Mar 30, 23, 12:21 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves true if any of the following conditions is met in any 12 month period before 2030/1/1.

The USD accounts for less than 40% of all global foreign exchange reserves held by central banks.
The USD is used in less than 60% of all international trade and financial transactions, including commodities, debt obligations, and investments.
The USD is pegged or linked to no other currencies or to currencies that are legal tender in countries accounting for less than 5% of the world population at the time.
The currencies can be linked directly or indirectly, through exchange rate regimes or currency boards.
Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Condition 1 (USD percentage of global foreign exchange reserves): Gold may be included in the denominator when calculating the USD's share.